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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged ยท Updated 14 October 2026
Overcast
32°
Overcast

Tomorrow's Weather Bushbuckridge

Mixed agreement. The models are split. The shape of the day is clearer than the exact number.

Mixed spread 3.8°C (30° to 34°) low 18°C rain 0.0 mm

Hot with overcast.

52%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
16°21°26°31°36°41°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 4.7°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
9UV index
29°feels like
67%rain chance
40gusts km/h
18wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Bushbuckridge

Thursday
15 October
Overcast
32°
Overcast · low 18°
Mixed · spread 3.8°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with overcast.
Friday
16 October
Clear sky
33°
Clear sky · low 18°
Mixed · spread 4.4°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Saturday
17 October
Clear sky
34°
Clear sky · low 17°
Mixed · spread 3.7°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Sunday
18 October
Partly cloudy
33°
Partly cloudy · low 18°
Mixed · spread 3.4°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with partly cloudy.
Monday
19 October
Overcast
37°
Overcast · low 17°
Low · spread 5.4°C · 5 models
rain 1.1 mm
Hot with overcast; a little rain is possible.
Tuesday
20 October
Overcast
21°
Overcast · low 14°
Low · spread 5.3°C · 5 models
rain 0.3 mm
Mild with overcast.
Wednesday
21 October
Partly cloudy
36°
Partly cloudy · low 14°
Mixed · spread 5.0°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with partly cloudy.
Thursday
22 October
Light rain
38°
Light rain · low 18°
Mixed · spread 4.7°C · 3 models
rain 0.1 mm
Hot with light rain.
Friday
23 October
Light rain
26°
Light rain · low 16°
Low · spread 6.2°C · 3 models
rain 2.2 mm
Warm with light rain; a little rain is possible.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
AROME Meteo-France 0.88°C -0.28°C
UKMO UK Met Office 0.89°C -0.52°C
ICON German weather service 0.90°C -0.54°C
GFS US national weather service 0.93°C +0.16°C
ECMWF European centre 1.20°C -0.97°C
GEM Canadian model 1.34°C -1.04°C

Population 750,821 on the municipal figures. Station distance: 54 km. Scored against 168 days of real hourly observations at Hoedspruit, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is AROME at 0.88°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is GEM, which has run 1.0°C cold at this station, so its number is lifted by 0.04°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. The population is for the whole Bushbuckridge municipality, which is much larger than the town. Scored against Hoedspruit. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Bushbuckridge