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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged ยท Updated 14 October 2026
Showers
32°
Showers

Tomorrow Weather Polokwane

Good agreement. The models mostly agree, with one or two outliers.

Good spread 2.2°C (30° to 33°) low 16°C rain 0.9 mm

Hot with showers; a little rain is possible.

72%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
19°24°29°34°39°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 2.8°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
9UV index
28°feels like
5%rain chance
32gusts km/h
21wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Polokwane

Thursday
15 October
Showers
32°
Showers · low 16°
Good · spread 2.2°C · 6 models
rain 0.9 mm
Hot with showers; a little rain is possible.
Friday
16 October
Clear sky
32°
Clear sky · low 16°
Good · spread 2.4°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Saturday
17 October
Clear sky
33°
Clear sky · low 15°
Mixed · spread 2.6°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Sunday
18 October
Clear sky
33°
Clear sky · low 15°
Good · spread 1.7°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Monday
19 October
Clear sky
35°
Clear sky · low 16°
Good · spread 1.2°C · 5 models
rain 0.1 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Tuesday
20 October
Partly cloudy
25°
Partly cloudy · low 12°
Low · spread 6.2°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with partly cloudy.
Wednesday
21 October
Clear sky
34°
Clear sky · low 13°
Good · spread 1.7°C · 3 models
rain 0.1 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Thursday
22 October
Light rain
37°
Light rain · low 17°
Good · spread 1.5°C · 3 models
rain 0.3 mm
Hot with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Friday
23 October
Showers
34°
Showers · low 14°
Low · spread 6.1°C · 3 models
rain 2.9 mm
Hot with showers, gusting to 36 km/h; a little rain is possible.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
GEM Canadian model 1.48°C -1.13°C
AROME Meteo-France 1.79°C -1.61°C
ICON German weather service 1.83°C -1.77°C
GFS US national weather service 2.14°C -1.87°C
UKMO UK Met Office 2.33°C -2.27°C
ECMWF European centre 2.53°C -2.50°C

Population 843,459 on the municipal figures. Station distance: 7 km. Scored against 174 days of real hourly observations at Polokwane International, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is GEM at 1.48°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is ECMWF, which has run 2.5°C cold at this station, so its number is lifted by 1.50°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Polokwane