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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged ยท Updated 14 October 2026
Overcast
34°
Overcast

Tomorrow Weather Mbombela

Mixed agreement. The models are split. The shape of the day is clearer than the exact number.

Mixed spread 4.0°C (32° to 36°) low 18°C rain 0.0 mm

Hot with overcast.

50%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
18°23°28°33°38°43°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 5.4°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
9UV index
29°feels like
11%rain chance
34gusts km/h
16wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Mbombela

Thursday
15 October
Overcast
34°
Overcast · low 18°
Mixed · spread 4.0°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with overcast.
Friday
16 October
Clear sky
34°
Clear sky · low 19°
Mixed · spread 4.7°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Saturday
17 October
Clear sky
35°
Clear sky · low 18°
Mixed · spread 4.4°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Sunday
18 October
Overcast
34°
Overcast · low 18°
Mixed · spread 4.7°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with overcast.
Monday
19 October
Partly cloudy
38°
Partly cloudy · low 18°
Low · spread 5.8°C · 5 models
rain 0.4 mm
Hot with partly cloudy; a little rain is possible.
Tuesday
20 October
Overcast
22°
Overcast · low 15°
Mixed · spread 4.3°C · 5 models
rain 0.9 mm
Mild with overcast; a little rain is possible.
Wednesday
21 October
Partly cloudy
35°
Partly cloudy · low 14°
Low · spread 5.9°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with partly cloudy.
Thursday
22 October
Partly cloudy
38°
Partly cloudy · low 18°
Low · spread 6.7°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with partly cloudy.
Friday
23 October
Light rain
27°
Light rain · low 17°
Low · spread 8.1°C · 3 models
rain 0.3 mm
Warm with light rain.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
UKMO UK Met Office 0.66°C +0.24°C
ICON German weather service 0.69°C +0.17°C
ECMWF European centre 0.78°C -0.10°C
GEM Canadian model 0.87°C -0.19°C
GFS US national weather service 1.68°C +1.53°C
AROME Meteo-France 1.68°C +1.65°C

Population 818,925 on the municipal figures. Station distance: 17 km. Scored against 173 days of real hourly observations at Kruger Mpumalanga International, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is UKMO at 0.66°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is AROME, which has run 1.7°C warm at this station, so its number is pulled down by 0.65°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. Formerly Nelspruit. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Mbombela