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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged ยท Updated 14 October 2026
Partly cloudy
30°
Partly cloudy

Tomorrow's Weather Durban

Mixed agreement. The models are split. The shape of the day is clearer than the exact number.

Mixed spread 4.0°C (29° to 33°) low 22°C rain 0.0 mm

Warm with partly cloudy.

50%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
19°24°29°34°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 3.8°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
8UV index
26°feels like
36%rain chance
46gusts km/h
27wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Durban

Thursday
15 October
Partly cloudy
30°
Partly cloudy · low 22°
Mixed · spread 4.0°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with partly cloudy.
Friday
16 October
Fog
29°
Fog · low 21°
Mixed · spread 4.9°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with fog.
Saturday
17 October
Overcast
31°
Overcast · low 22°
Mixed · spread 4.7°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with overcast.
Sunday
18 October
Light rain
26°
Light rain · low 22°
Good · spread 2.1°C · 5 models
rain 1.0 mm
Mild with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Monday
19 October
Showers
23°
Showers · low 18°
Mixed · spread 2.9°C · 5 models
rain 5.9 mm
Mild with showers, gusting to 47 km/h; about 6 mm of rain is likely.
Tuesday
20 October
Partly cloudy
22°
Partly cloudy · low 17°
Good · spread 1.6°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with partly cloudy.
Wednesday
21 October
Partly cloudy
28°
Partly cloudy · low 17°
Low · spread 8.1°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with partly cloudy.
Thursday
22 October
Light rain
26°
Light rain · low 18°
Good · spread 2.1°C · 3 models
rain 1.2 mm
Mild with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Friday
23 October
Light rain
22°
Light rain · low 18°
Mixed · spread 3.8°C · 3 models
rain 2.4 mm
Mild with light rain, gusting to 36 km/h; a little rain is possible.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
ICON German weather service 0.92°C +0.02°C
GFS US national weather service 0.99°C -0.41°C
UKMO UK Met Office 1.22°C +0.75°C
GEM Canadian model 1.64°C +1.10°C
ECMWF European centre 1.94°C +1.60°C
AROME Meteo-France 2.75°C +2.61°C

Population 4,239,901 on the municipal figures. Station distance: 29 km. Scored against 174 days of real hourly observations at Durban King Shaka, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is ICON at 0.92°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is AROME, which has run 2.6°C warm at this station, so its number is pulled down by 1.61°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. eThekwini metro. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Durban