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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged · Updated 14 October 2026
Partly cloudy
32°
Partly cloudy

Tomorrow Weather Mahikeng

Mixed agreement. The models are split. The shape of the day is clearer than the exact number.

Mixed spread 4.1°C (29° to 33°) low 16°C rain 0.0 mm
HotHot, 31°C

Warm with partly cloudy.

49%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
23°28°33°38°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 3.9°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
9UV index
30°feels like
3%rain chance
52gusts km/h
32wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Mahikeng

Thursday
15 October
Partly cloudy
32°
Partly cloudy · low 16°
Mixed · spread 4.1°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with partly cloudy.
Friday
16 October
Partly cloudy
33°
Partly cloudy · low 18°
Mixed · spread 4.5°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with partly cloudy.
Saturday
17 October
Partly cloudy
34°
Partly cloudy · low 20°
Mixed · spread 4.1°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with partly cloudy.
Sunday
18 October
Overcast
34°
Overcast · low 20°
Mixed · spread 3.9°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with overcast.
Monday
19 October
Partly cloudy
29°
Partly cloudy · low 16°
Low · spread 8.2°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with partly cloudy.
Tuesday
20 October
Clear sky
31°
Clear sky · low 12°
Low · spread 6.0°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with clear sky.
Wednesday
21 October
Clear sky
33°
Clear sky · low 16°
Good · spread 1.5°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Thursday
22 October
Clear sky
34°
Clear sky · low 16°
Good · spread 0.2°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.
Friday
23 October
Clear sky
35°
Clear sky · low 17°
Good · spread 2.5°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
GEM Canadian model 1.02°C -0.61°C
ICON German weather service 1.02°C -0.62°C
GFS US national weather service 1.47°C -1.02°C
AROME Meteo-France 1.61°C -1.31°C
ECMWF European centre 1.76°C -1.67°C
UKMO UK Met Office 2.14°C -2.04°C

Station distance: 11 km. Scored against 174 days of real hourly observations at Mahikeng, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is GEM at 1.02°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is UKMO, which has run 2.0°C cold at this station, so its number is lifted by 1.04°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Mahikeng