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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged ยท Updated 14 October 2026
Overcast
24°
Overcast

Tomorrow Weather George

Low agreement. The models disagree. Treat the number as a guide, not a promise.

Low spread 6.6°C (21° to 28°) low 10°C rain 0.0 mm

Mild with overcast.

18%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
11°16°21°26°31°36°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 6.0°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
7UV index
21°feels like
0%rain chance
32gusts km/h
13wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for George

Thursday
15 October
Overcast
24°
Overcast · low 10°
Low · spread 6.6°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.
Friday
16 October
Overcast
30°
Overcast · low 14°
Low · spread 12.0°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with overcast.
Saturday
17 October
Light rain
22°
Light rain · low 14°
Low · spread 7.2°C · 6 models
rain 3.7 mm
Mild with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Sunday
18 October
Light rain
14°
Light rain · low 11°
Good · spread 2.4°C · 5 models
rain 24.0 mm
Cold with light rain; about 24 mm of rain is likely.
Monday
19 October
Light rain
16°
Light rain · low 9°
Good · spread 1.6°C · 5 models
rain 9.8 mm
Cool with light rain; about 10 mm of rain is likely.
Tuesday
20 October
Overcast
24°
Overcast · low 8°
Mixed · spread 5.0°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.
Wednesday
21 October
Light rain
22°
Light rain · low 12°
Low · spread 5.1°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with light rain.
Thursday
22 October
Light rain
19°
Light rain · low 12°
Low · spread 10.5°C · 3 models
rain 3.4 mm
Cool with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Friday
23 October
Partly cloudy
19°
Partly cloudy · low 12°
Mixed · spread 3.5°C · 3 models
rain 0.7 mm
Cool with partly cloudy; a little rain is possible.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
AROME Meteo-France 0.95°C +0.01°C
ICON German weather service 0.99°C -0.58°C
ECMWF European centre 1.15°C -0.70°C
UKMO UK Met Office 1.23°C +0.74°C
GFS US national weather service 1.27°C -0.93°C
GEM Canadian model 1.70°C -1.51°C

Station distance: 9 km. Scored against 174 days of real hourly observations at George, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is AROME at 0.95°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is GEM, which has run 1.5°C cold at this station, so its number is lifted by 0.51°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near George