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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged ยท Updated 14 October 2026
Partly cloudy
20°
Partly cloudy

Tomorrow Weather Saldanha

Mixed agreement. The models are split. The shape of the day is clearer than the exact number.

Mixed spread 3.9°C (18° to 22°) low 12°C rain 0.0 mm

Mild with partly cloudy.

51%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
14°19°24°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 4.1°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
8UV index
17°feels like
0%rain chance
38gusts km/h
23wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Saldanha

Thursday
15 October
Partly cloudy
20°
Partly cloudy · low 12°
Mixed · spread 3.9°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with partly cloudy.
Friday
16 October
Overcast
22°
Overcast · low 12°
Low · spread 5.2°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.
Saturday
17 October
Light rain
19°
Light rain · low 14°
Mixed · spread 4.6°C · 6 models
rain 2.3 mm
Cool with light rain, gusting to 37 km/h; a little rain is possible.
Sunday
18 October
Light rain
16°
Light rain · low 13°
Good · spread 1.9°C · 5 models
rain 1.8 mm
Cool with light rain, gusting to 38 km/h; a little rain is possible.
Monday
19 October
Partly cloudy
18°
Partly cloudy · low 12°
Mixed · spread 3.3°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Cool with partly cloudy.
Tuesday
20 October
Partly cloudy
20°
Partly cloudy · low 11°
Low · spread 8.4°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Cool with partly cloudy.
Wednesday
21 October
Light rain
18°
Light rain · low 14°
Mixed · spread 3.5°C · 3 models
rain 2.0 mm
Cool with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Thursday
22 October
Light rain
18°
Light rain · low 14°
Mixed · spread 3.8°C · 3 models
rain 1.7 mm
Cool with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Friday
23 October
Overcast
21°
Overcast · low 14°
Good · spread 2.1°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
GEM Canadian model 0.95°C -0.59°C
ECMWF European centre 1.00°C +0.50°C
AROME Meteo-France 1.15°C -0.82°C
GFS US national weather service 1.25°C +0.35°C
UKMO UK Met Office 1.28°C -0.49°C
ICON German weather service 1.92°C -1.75°C

Station distance: 21 km. Scored against 172 days of real hourly observations at Langebaanweg, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is GEM at 0.95°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is ICON, which has run 1.8°C cold at this station, so its number is lifted by 0.75°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. The town has no weather station of its own, so this location is scored against Langebaanweg, about 21 km away. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Saldanha