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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged · Updated 14 October 2026
Clear sky
34°
Clear sky

Tomorrow Weather Upington

Mixed agreement. The models are split. The shape of the day is clearer than the exact number.

Mixed spread 3.5°C (33° to 36°) low 17°C rain 0.0 mm
HotHot, 35°C

Hot with clear sky, gusting to 36 km/h.

56%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
20°25°30°35°40°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 4.2°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
9UV index
34°feels like
0%rain chance
54gusts km/h
27wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Upington

Thursday
15 October
Clear sky
34°
Clear sky · low 17°
Mixed · spread 3.5°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky, gusting to 36 km/h.
Friday
16 October
Partly cloudy
38°
Partly cloudy · low 17°
Mixed · spread 3.1°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with partly cloudy.
Saturday
17 October
Overcast
36°
Overcast · low 19°
Low · spread 5.9°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with overcast.
Sunday
18 October
Overcast
31°
Overcast · low 15°
Low · spread 5.5°C · 5 models
rain 0.2 mm
Warm with overcast, gusting to 43 km/h.
Monday
19 October
Light rain
23°
Light rain · low 9°
Good · spread 2.4°C · 5 models
rain 0.7 mm
Mild with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Tuesday
20 October
Partly cloudy
30°
Partly cloudy · low 10°
Low · spread 6.1°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with partly cloudy.
Wednesday
21 October
Overcast
30°
Overcast · low 13°
Mixed · spread 2.9°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with overcast.
Thursday
22 October
Clear sky
31°
Clear sky · low 14°
Mixed · spread 4.6°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with clear sky.
Friday
23 October
Clear sky
36°
Clear sky · low 15°
Mixed · spread 4.1°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with clear sky.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
ICON German weather service 1.12°C -0.66°C
GEM Canadian model 1.13°C -0.57°C
UKMO UK Met Office 1.56°C -1.45°C
GFS US national weather service 1.82°C -1.37°C
ECMWF European centre 1.95°C -1.87°C
AROME Meteo-France 2.25°C -2.01°C

Station distance: 5 km. Scored against 173 days of real hourly observations at Upington, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is ICON at 1.12°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is AROME, which has run 2.0°C cold at this station, so its number is lifted by 1.01°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Upington