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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged · Updated 14 October 2026
Overcast
31°
Overcast

Tomorrow Weather Kimberley

Low agreement. The models disagree. Treat the number as a guide, not a promise.

Low spread 6.0°C (28° to 34°) low 16°C rain 0.0 mm
HotHot, 33°C

Warm with overcast.

25%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
17°22°27°32°37°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 6.1°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
9UV index
31°feels like
43%rain chance
54gusts km/h
30wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Kimberley

Thursday
15 October
Overcast
31°
Overcast · low 16°
Low · spread 6.0°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with overcast.
Friday
16 October
Overcast
33°
Overcast · low 17°
Mixed · spread 4.9°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Hot with overcast.
Saturday
17 October
Light rain
35°
Light rain · low 19°
Low · spread 6.3°C · 6 models
rain 0.4 mm
Hot with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Sunday
18 October
Light rain
31°
Light rain · low 18°
Low · spread 8.8°C · 5 models
rain 0.8 mm
Warm with light rain, gusting to 49 km/h; a little rain is possible.
Monday
19 October
Partly cloudy
22°
Partly cloudy · low 12°
Low · spread 5.9°C · 5 models
rain 3.2 mm
Mild with partly cloudy; a little rain is possible.
Tuesday
20 October
Partly cloudy
26°
Partly cloudy · low 9°
Low · spread 9.1°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with partly cloudy.
Wednesday
21 October
Partly cloudy
30°
Partly cloudy · low 13°
Low · spread 6.9°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with partly cloudy.
Thursday
22 October
Clear sky
29°
Clear sky · low 14°
Mixed · spread 3.4°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with clear sky, gusting to 38 km/h.
Friday
23 October
Clear sky
32°
Clear sky · low 14°
Mixed · spread 3.8°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with clear sky.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
GEM Canadian model 0.89°C -0.41°C
ICON German weather service 0.93°C -0.59°C
GFS US national weather service 1.66°C -1.02°C
AROME Meteo-France 1.72°C -1.36°C
UKMO UK Met Office 1.91°C -1.70°C
ECMWF European centre 2.05°C -1.89°C

Station distance: 8 km. Scored against 173 days of real hourly observations at Kimberley, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is GEM at 0.89°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. Each model's number also has its own long-run bias taken off before averaging, but only the part beyond one degree: here that is ECMWF, which has run 1.9°C cold at this station, so its number is lifted by 0.89°C before anything is averaged. A bias under a degree is left alone, because over a six month record it cannot be told apart from ordinary luck, and correcting noise adds error instead of removing it. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Kimberley