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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged ยท Updated 14 October 2026
Overcast
25°
Overcast

Tomorrow Weather Hermanus

Mixed agreement. The models are split. The shape of the day is clearer than the exact number.

Mixed spread 4.4°C (22° to 26°) low 12°C rain 0.0 mm

Mild with overcast.

45%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
11°16°21°26°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 4.0°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
7UV index
18°feels like
0%rain chance
55gusts km/h
23wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Hermanus

Thursday
15 October
Overcast
25°
Overcast · low 12°
Mixed · spread 4.4°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.
Friday
16 October
Overcast
26°
Overcast · low 15°
Low · spread 8.6°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.
Saturday
17 October
Light rain
18°
Light rain · low 13°
Good · spread 2.4°C · 6 models
rain 11.0 mm
Cool with light rain; about 11 mm of rain is likely.
Sunday
18 October
Light rain
14°
Light rain · low 11°
Good · spread 1.7°C · 5 models
rain 13.1 mm
Cold with light rain; about 13 mm of rain is likely.
Monday
19 October
Light rain
17°
Light rain · low 9°
Good · spread 1.9°C · 5 models
rain 0.2 mm
Cool with light rain.
Tuesday
20 October
Overcast
20°
Overcast · low 9°
Low · spread 6.6°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.
Wednesday
21 October
Rain
19°
Rain · low 14°
Low · spread 5.1°C · 3 models
rain 3.2 mm
Cool with rain, gusting to 38 km/h; a little rain is possible.
Thursday
22 October
Light rain
18°
Light rain · low 14°
Mixed · spread 4.8°C · 3 models
rain 2.9 mm
Cool with light rain; a little rain is possible.
Friday
23 October
Overcast
25°
Overcast · low 12°
Good · spread 0.8°C · 3 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
UKMO UK Met Office 0.82°C -0.08°C
ICON German weather service 0.97°C -0.14°C
ECMWF European centre 0.97°C -0.54°C
AROME Meteo-France 0.99°C -0.79°C
GEM Canadian model 1.02°C +0.66°C
GFS US national weather service 1.13°C +0.58°C

Station distance: 77 km. Scored against 174 days of real hourly observations at Cape Town International, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is UKMO at 0.82°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. No model has run more than a degree off at this station over the scored period, so no bias correction is applied here. Hermanus has no weather station of its own, so it is scored against Cape Town International, about 77 km away. That is further than we normally accept, and it is stated here rather than glossed over. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Hermanus