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Consensus Weather Forecasting 6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
6 independent models, averaged ยท Updated 14 October 2026
Overcast
21°
Overcast

Tomorrow Weather Gqeberha

Good agreement. The models mostly agree, with one or two outliers.

Good spread 2.4°C (20° to 23°) low 14°C rain 0.0 mm

Mild with overcast.

70%model confidence
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Where the models agree, and where they do not

ICONGerman weather serviceECMWFEuropean centreGFSUS national weather serviceAROMEMeteo-FranceUKMOUK Met OfficeGEMCanadian model
14°19°24°29°Thu15 OctFri16 OctSat17 OctSun18 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 Oct

Each coloured line is one independent forecast model. The white line is their average, weighted so that the models which have actually been accurate here count for more and with each model's excess bias already removed, which is why it does not sit exactly in the middle of the band. The grey band is the disagreement between them: a narrow band means the forecast is trustworthy, a wide one means the shape will hold but the numbers will not. Average spread across the 9 days: 3.6°C.

-sunrise
-sunset
-sunshine
8UV index
25°feels like
0%rain chance
44gusts km/h
25wind km/h

9 day weather forecast for Gqeberha

Thursday
15 October
Overcast
21°
Overcast · low 14°
Good · spread 2.4°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.
Friday
16 October
Overcast
27°
Overcast · low 15°
Low · spread 6.8°C · 6 models
rain 0.0 mm
Warm with overcast.
Saturday
17 October
Overcast
22°
Overcast · low 16°
Mixed · spread 4.5°C · 6 models
rain 0.6 mm
Mild with overcast; a little rain is possible.
Sunday
18 October
Rain
19°
Rain · low 15°
Mixed · spread 3.5°C · 5 models
rain 13.1 mm
Cool with rain, gusting to 37 km/h; about 13 mm of rain is likely.
Monday
19 October
Rain
16°
Rain · low 12°
Good · spread 1.3°C · 5 models
rain 15.7 mm
Cool with rain; about 16 mm of rain is likely.
Tuesday
20 October
Overcast
22°
Overcast · low 10°
Low · spread 5.1°C · 5 models
rain 0.0 mm
Mild with overcast.
Wednesday
21 October
Light rain
22°
Light rain · low 14°
Good · spread 1.6°C · 3 models
rain 0.1 mm
Mild with light rain.
Thursday
22 October
Light rain
22°
Light rain · low 13°
Mixed · spread 4.0°C · 3 models
rain 0.6 mm
Mild with light rain, gusting to 42 km/h; a little rain is possible.
Friday
23 October
Partly cloudy
19°
Partly cloudy · low 13°
Mixed · spread 2.9°C · 3 models
rain 2.3 mm
Cool with partly cloudy; a little rain is possible.

Which model is actually best here

ModelSourceMean errorErrorBias
ECMWF European centre 1.01°C -0.36°C
GEM Canadian model 1.02°C -0.61°C
ICON German weather service 1.04°C +0.51°C
UKMO UK Met Office 1.07°C +0.62°C
AROME Meteo-France 1.14°C -0.67°C
GFS US national weather service 1.43°C +0.93°C

Population 1,190,496 on the municipal figures. Station distance: 3 km. Scored against 174 days of real hourly observations at Chief Dawid Stuurman International, comparing each model's forecast of the daily maximum with what the airport actually measured. The models are queried at the station's own coordinates for this comparison, not the city centre, so the score describes the same piece of ground the measurements came from. Mean error is the average size of the mistake; bias shows whether the model runs warm or cold. Best here is ECMWF at 1.01°C. The headline average is weighted by these errors, so a model that has been wrong by three degrees here carries a fraction of the vote of one that has been wrong by half a degree. Rainfall is a plain mean, because one dry model should not be allowed to cancel a wet one. No model has run more than a degree off at this station over the scored period, so no bias correction is applied here. Nelson Mandela Bay metro. No model is far enough behind to be dropped at this station, so all six count towards the average.

Weather near Gqeberha