Tomorrow Weather
Consensus Weather Forecasting
6 Weathermen in one - Averaged.
Tomorrow Weather South Africa
Every other weather page gives you one answer and no way to judge it. This one shows you what six independent forecasting centres say, how far apart they are, and which of them has actually been right where you live. That is what consensus weather forecasting means here.
See every location and its weather station
What consensus weather forecasting means
Consensus weather forecasting starts from a simple problem. A single forecast number hides its own uncertainty. When six models are within half a degree of each other, tomorrow is settled and you can plan around it. When they are four degrees apart, the shape of the day is all anyone honestly knows. Most sites print the number either way. We print the disagreement next to it, because that is the part that tells you how much to trust the rest.
Six forecasts, not one
We show the separate output of six national forecasting centres, then their weighted average, then the band between their lowest and highest answer.
Checked against the real station
Each model is measured against the official weather station closest to your location, over the past six months of hourly observations.
Weighted by who is right
A model that has been accurate at your location counts for more in the average. A model that has been wrong counts for less, and we publish the score it earned.
Locations are only listed when a reporting station sits close enough to describe them honestly. That is why the list is shorter than the list of South African towns.